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SESSION 1: Understanding the Policymaker’s Universe
(11 Dec)
You examine the strategic and day-to-day challenges
facing decisionmakers at all stages and levels of the
policymaking process. Who are they? What do they need?
How do their needs differ from their desires? How do we
and they bridge those two conflicting realities? What’s
on policymakers’ plates today, and what does the world
look like to them? And what does the world look like to
us?
Preparation:
1. Read: A Guide to Producing
Actionable Intelligence. Introduction, BLUF,
What do Decisionmakers Need (pp i‑19).
CLICK HERE.
2. Read:
Revista Hipótesis. The Analyst’s Exciting
Challenges. Commentary by Fulton Armstrong. 2014.
3.
Begin to think what topic you want to
treat over the course of our eight sessions together,
walking it through each stage of analysis, policy option
development, and recommendation. Choose a topic that you
already know a lot about so you don’t have to do too
much new research.
POWERPOINT OF SESSION 1
SESSION 2: The Inputs at a Policymaker’s Disposal (12
Dec)
You look at the range of sources of information,
analysis, values, pressures, and guidances that
influence policymakers – and sort out the impact of
each. What is the role of clandestine intelligence
versus open-source? How do we and policymakers assess
the accuracy of each? How can we model the flow of
information influencing public debate and private
deliberations? Which “wins” the battle of influence, and
why? What are the causes of “intelligence failures”?
Preparation:
1. Read:
Excerpts from Psychology of Intelligence Analysis,
by Richards Heuer, Jr. – paying particular attention
to the dynamic between information, where it fits in
mental models, and how the author recommends we navigate
our own mental shortcomings.
2. ASSIGNMENT: Write down the sources of
information upon which you rely to understand your
world, especially the topic you’ve chosen to develop
over the course of these eight sessions.
3. Think about how you and colleagues
evaluate information and avoid the pitfalls of fake
news, algorithm-driven search tools, biases programed
into AI, and other threats to clear and free thought.
POWERPOINT OF SESSION 2
SESSION 3: The Role of Analysis – and How to Make it
Actionable (13 Dec)
You begin a deep dive into a realistic way of improving
the inputs into policymaking and, therefore, into policy
itself. What is “actionable” analysis, and what makes it
different? What are “drivers”? How do they make
actionable analysis different from academic analysis?
What are the drivers of world and national affairs in
today’s headlines? How are those drivers evolving?
Preparation:
1. Read: A Guide to Producing Actionable
Intelligence. Doing the Analysis (pp 20‑33).
CLICK HERE
2. Think about the drivers in your personal
life, in the organizations you’re part of, and in
national and international affairs.
POWERPOINT OF SESSION 3
SESSION 4: “Drivers” as the Heartbeat of Analysis and
Policy (8 Jan)
When we reconvene for this in-person session, you plumb
deeper into the essential nature of drivers in good
analysis and identify them in projects of the class’s
choosing. How are they evolving –“stronger or weaker” or
“better or worse”? How do you track them, and what
indicators do you consider reliable? What drivers
influence your life? How do drivers translate into
policy options?
Preparation:
1. Read: A Guide to Producing Actionable
Intelligence. The Double Importance of Drivers and
Trends (pp 33‑46).
CLICK HERE
2. Think about the difference between
“linear” and “spiral” thinking – and how the two styles
produce different results at every stage of your work.
3. ASSIGNMENT: Write and e-mail to the
professor a) a list of the principal (five or so)
drivers of the issue you’re covering as your semester
project; a brief definition of each driver; and a
description of how each is evolving (as defined in the
reading); and b) a list of policies that you think, at
this early stage of your work, could conceivably
change the impact of those drivers on your issue.
Deadline: 9pm on Friday, 3 January
Format: Word document
4. ASSIGNMENT: Begin filling in the
“analytical worksheet” on your semester project,
preferably using the Word “form” version. For Session 4,
fill in a draft of your Thesis; the basic facts you want
to include in Framing; and the four top drivers and
their “trends” that you have identified in your e-mail
to the professor.
POWERPOINT OF SESSION 4
SESSION 5: Crafting “Scenarios” with Meaningful
Probabilities and Messages (9 Jan)
You game out the most likely scenario or two that your
issue will follow. What are the distinguishing
characteristics of your principal scenario? How will
your policymaker know it’s coming? What probability do
you give it? What driver will evolve in a way that a
different scenario will occur? How will you know? What
does each scenario mean for your policymaker,
organization, or country?
Preparation:
1. Read: A Guide to Producing Actionable
Intelligence. Scenarios. “Red Cell” and
Competitive Analysis. Inductive, Deductive, and
Abductive Thinking. Wild Cards. Implications
(pp 47-66).
2. ASSIGNMENT: Outline (in writing) the
principal and alternative scenarios – with probabilities
– that you see ahead for your semester project topic.
Give the scenarios titles, probabilities, brief
descriptions, and implications. Bring the written paper
to Session 5.
POWERPOINT OF SESSION
5
SESSION 6: Sharpening Our Analysis and Honing Our
Tradecraft (10 Jan)
You undertake a full-fledged analysis of a topic of your
choosing, in coordination with a classmate, for a
predetermined policymaker. What sort of options do you
foresee the policymaker as having, and what do you
expect them to do? What “symptoms” of a problem are they
going to have to deal with – to satisfy short-term
demands – and what drivers will they have time to
address with smarter policies? What drivers, trends,
scenarios, and implications do they need to know to make
a good decision?
Preparation:
1. Read: A Guide to Producing Actionable
Intelligence. Are You Confident? Mind-Mapping.
Other Analytical Models. Tradecraft. (pp 66‑76).
2. ASSIGNMENT: Add the scenarios, wild cards (if
any), and implications to your Analytic Worksheet. Add
“Other Points,” as defined in the readings and class, if
you have any. Bring a printed copy for each classmate
and the professor.
3. Think again of what policy options you
would identify for your policymaker based on the drivers
and trends in your analysis.
POWERPOINT OF SESSION
6
SESSION 7: Communicating Analysis for Impact (13 Jan)
You practice the technique of communicating analysis to
busy policymakers – concisely, accurately,
unambiguously, and efficiently. What does your
decisionmaker really need, and how do you best give it
to them? How much detail? How do you self-edit your
work? When doing an oral briefing, how do you anticipate
questions, and how do you keep them and the
decisionmaker’s comments from pushing you off track? How
do you control your nerves ... and even have fun?
Preparation:
1. Read: A Guide to Producing Actionable
Intelligence. Communicating Your Analysis. The
Importance of Words, Grammar, Sentences. The Technology
of Writing. What about AI? Principles and Tips. How to
Write Analysis (pp 77‑126).
2. ASSIGNMENT: Using the Briefing
Preparation form, build a well-structured five-minute
briefing that gives the policymaker your message in a
digestible, prioritized format. Bring one printed copy
to class for each classmate and the professor.
POWERPOINT OF SESSION 7
SESSION 8: Arming the Policymaker for Action now … and
in the future (14 Jan)
You deliver a full oral briefing to a decisionmaker who
is under great pressure to formulate a policy response
to the problem on which you have expertise (and have
been working over the previous seven sessions). First,
what actionable analysis do you give them, without
crossing the line into making recommendations? Later,
putting on your policy hat, what do you recommend they
do? All the while, how do you protect your tradecraft
and integrity? How do you handle interruptions and
challenges to your analysis? How can you adapt this
approach to analysis and customer service in other
situations you will encounter?
Preparation:
1. Read: A Guide to Producing Actionable
Intelligence. Pulling it All Together. Other
Challenges, including Politicization, Institutional
Cultures, and Maintaining Morale (pp. 127-131).
POWERPOINT OF SESSION
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